Ex leader of Germany confirms revelations by ex Israeli PM & Ukrainian media: "At the peace negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022 with Rustem Umerov, the Ukrainians did not agree on peace because they were not allowed to. For everything they discussed, they first had to ask the Americans. I had two talks with Umerov, then a one-on-one meeting with Putin, and then with Putin’s envoy. Umerov opened the conversation with greetings from Zelensky. As a compromise for Ukraine’s security guarantees, the Austrian model or the 5+1 model was proposed. Umerow thought that was a good thing. He also showed willingness on the other points. He also said that Ukraine does not want NATO membership. He also said that Ukraine wants to reintroduce Russian in the Donbass. But in the end, nothing happened. My impression was that nothing could happen, because everything else was decided in Washington. That was fatal. Because the result will now be that Russia will be tied more closely to China, which the West should not want.
And the Europeans?
They have failed. There would have been a window in March 2022. The Ukrainians were ready to talk about Crimea. This was even confirmed by the Bild newspaper at the time.
(Gerhard Schroeder shows a page from the BILD newspaper with the title “Finally peace in sight?”. It says: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) himself had already hinted at concessions for negotiations: He no longer insists on his country’s accession to NATO, he told the US broadcaster ABC. And he is also ready for a ‘compromise’ on Crimea and the breakaway provinces in the Donbass. ‘In every negotiation, my goal is to end the war with Russia,’ Zelensky told BILD.
In 2022, I received a request from Ukraine asking if I could mediate between Russia and Ukraine. The question was whether I could convey a message to Putin. There would also be someone who would have a very close relationship with the Ukrainian president himself. This was Rustem Umerov, the current Minister of Defense of Ukraine. He is a member of the Crimean Tatar minority. Then the question was: How to end the war?
It was either to draw forces away from the true frontline or to force Zelensky to step down. It ended up achieving the former and not the latter.
Russia has no chance of actually holding Northwestern Ukraine. They have decent odds in Southern and Eastern Ukraine because of demographics, but they’d be fighting Ukrainian nationalist insurgencies (a la Gaza v. Israel) if they tried to occupy Kiev.
The USSR had the same issue - Ukrainian nationalist sabotage coupled with negligence and malicious intent on behalf of the communist party individuals responsible for Ukraine (who were later executed by Stalin during the purges due to this failure) led to a famine that killed millions. Ukrainians want to be independent, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that all of Ukraine is dominated by ethnic Ukrainians. It’s not.