Polymarket has him pretty low. And Shapiro doesn’t seem like an objectively bad pick, but his response to Gaza protests and student protests don’t seem to me like they are going to move the needle in the demographics Harris needs for the WI/ MI/ MN trifecta.
I’d say that makes him an objectively bad pick. It’s confirming to people who are finally cautiously optimistic that they won’t have to vote for someone whose support for genocide was a given that their optimism was completely unfounded.
Shapiro was also the first and strongest voice calling out Bibi as a terrible leader as early as November 23 because of his handling of this specific issue
I’ve got a friend that is pretty deep in their Palestine support, to the extent they are part of a social media bubble, and their entire bubble is full of articles and opinions painting Shapiro as an anti-Palestine, extreme Zionist, who is former IDF.
That’s the information they lead off with when characterizing him - no mentions of his criticisms of Netanyahu.
Michigan’s large Muslim population wrote off Biden, and the pivot to Harris showed a pretty big jump in support for her vs him. I think that Shapiro would absolutely cost her the race in MI.
Of course, the opposite could be true - Jewish voters (as well as the incredibly powerful AIPAC) may lean in to Trump if Kamala appears to be too critical of Israel. Shapiro could temper those sentiments.
I’d say that makes him an objectively bad pick. It’s confirming to people who are finally cautiously optimistic that they won’t have to vote for someone whose support for genocide was a given that their optimism was completely unfounded.
You might be right.
Shapiro was also the first and strongest voice calling out Bibi as a terrible leader as early as November 23 because of his handling of this specific issue
Depends.
I’ve got a friend that is pretty deep in their Palestine support, to the extent they are part of a social media bubble, and their entire bubble is full of articles and opinions painting Shapiro as an anti-Palestine, extreme Zionist, who is former IDF.
That’s the information they lead off with when characterizing him - no mentions of his criticisms of Netanyahu.
Michigan’s large Muslim population wrote off Biden, and the pivot to Harris showed a pretty big jump in support for her vs him. I think that Shapiro would absolutely cost her the race in MI.
Of course, the opposite could be true - Jewish voters (as well as the incredibly powerful AIPAC) may lean in to Trump if Kamala appears to be too critical of Israel. Shapiro could temper those sentiments.
Harris better absolutely be thinking about these things in making the decision.