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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 14th, 2023

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  • I can’t find such a study, and it seems extremely unlikely to me that any such study was performed recently. The original law was passed in 2007, and then the regulations were in political limbo for more than a decade.

    My base hypotheses here, subject to easy refutation by any real evidence, are that:

    • The DOE has looked at no study from after 2007 to justify their current policies.
    • This regulation is going into effect now simply because it was on the list of stuff Trump did that the Biden admin reversed.
    • The effect on consumer electricity costs and carbon emissions are negligible, since LED bulbs are a decade cheaper and better and almost everyone voluntarily buys them.



  • Does anybody use incandescent light bulbs as radiators?

    Yes. I’ve done it personally a couple times.

    Because it’s the only alternative use I can think of.

    The thing about alternative uses is that they’re still real even if you can’t think of them.

    Broad bans are a bad policy tool in general. Even if you believe in the progressive ideal of expert regulators making broad societal policies, a simple thought experiment shows the problem: What would it take to do the study to accurately determine all the negative effects of a ban? Not guessing, not wishful thinking, but really collecting and analyzing the information.

    I wish people were as mad when books get banned, but sadly it’s not the case

    When was the last time the US federal government banned a book?


  • And heat is not ready a concern. You can touch most LED bulbs with your bare hands with no risk of severe burn.

    This very clearly indicates that you haven’t seriously considered this issue at all, and are just supporting your political faction with no reflection on what the unintended consequences might be.

    A common application of incandescent bulbs is to produce heat, for a variety of use cases. The typical example is an improvised chicken incubator.

    Consider very carefully why there’s an exception for traffic signals.












  • How much hotter? What concrete harms will result? How much can that be reduced by different levels of reduction in fossil fuel use? What are the harms from that reduction? How do those harms compare? What are the second order effects and their consequences for all of the above?

    Now, let’s step back and accept that nobody actually has reliable answers to most of those questions. Further, nobody actually gets to make global policy choices. Even worse, the people who do make national policy choices don’t seem to make those choices based on collecting the best data and then rationally trying to serve the public interest.

    Nether the “humanity will die” and “climate change isn’t real” claims are honest attempts to accurately predict the future. They are strategic attempts to influence public perception in a way that is hoped to lead to specific kinds of policy choice that benefit coalitions of special interests at the expense of most of humanity. Most people would be significantly better off if neither of those buckets of policies were implemented.