Yes, and Harris by 1.7 (as it shows currently) is still within the margin of error. Assuming a 3% margin of error (common, but I didn’t look at the details for any of these polls), anything from Harris by 4.7 to Trump by 1.3 is perfectly in line with predictions.
In human terms, Harris has a very narrow lead, which could easily disappear when people actually go to the polls.
538 is an aggregate.
If you look at the polling page for Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Harris wins 4 out of the 7 most recent polls. Trump wins 2. One was a tie.
Right now, things are looking good in MI and the 3rd party vote is right at 0 to 1% as predicted.
Yes, and Harris by 1.7 (as it shows currently) is still within the margin of error. Assuming a 3% margin of error (common, but I didn’t look at the details for any of these polls), anything from Harris by 4.7 to Trump by 1.3 is perfectly in line with predictions.
In human terms, Harris has a very narrow lead, which could easily disappear when people actually go to the polls.