Is AI Facing a Trough of Disillusionment?
403 Forbidden
Is AI's hype cycle leading us into a trough of disillusionment? Dive into the reality behind GPT-5's launch and its impact on the tech world.
A recent MIT report on AI in business found that 95 percent of all generative-AI deployments in business settings generated “zero return.”
Just like NFTs, this will be remembered as the biggest grift of our generation so far
I'm guessing it'll be more like the dot com bubble in the 90s - too much too soon but it's not going away.
Exactly this. It's the hype cycle all over again. Everyone gets excited about the new thing, the new thing is easy to implement but hard to utilize effectively, everyone starts shoehorning the new thing into their thing, they throw shit-tons of money at it and shit-tons more to market it as the greatest thing ever, and then everyone starts to see the truth. The new thing is okay and can be useful but it has been way overblown, and it all starts to crumble down to where it should be and then we build it up slowly from there.
It really feels like a "biggest grift so far" moment and they're just desperate for a new hype to suck ungodly amounts of money into. Quantum computing, biotech or whatever they come up with.
i know it’s popular to be very dismissive, but a lot of “AI” has already been integrated into normal workflows. AI autocomplete in development text editors, software keyboards, and question asking bots isn’t going away. speech-to-text, “smart eraser”, subject classification, signal processing kernels like DLSS and frame generation, and so many more will be with us and improving for a long time. Transformers, machine learning optimized chips, and other ML fields are going to be with us for a long time. the comparison to NFTs is either angst or misunderstanding.
Nearly all of those can run just fine on-device. I think the part of the bubble that's ripe to burst is the gigantic gigawatt data centers; we don't even have the power to run them if all the ones under construction were completed. The current trajectory is not sustainable, and the more contact it has with reality the harder that will be to ignore.
That's the issue, AI right now means LLMs not deep learning/ML.
The Deep Learning/ML stuff will keep chugging along.
True,I remember nfts died cause they lost their value alot.
Nfts never really had any use in the first place. Ai and LLMs does have a lot of fields where it will be used and expanded on, how much depends a lot on how it keeps developing.
But current state LLMs already can change a lot, but it will take years to be implemented widespread. Think of all the things that are still not digital at all
Its only a trough if it goes back up on the other side.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hinted as much with a January post on his personal blog. Altman wrote he was “now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it,” adding that 2025 would be the year AI agents “materially change the output of companies.”
These guys are such a joke, but they are the ones laughing $.
The same guy who said he only needed a "few" more trillion dollars to make it all work.
We are the joke
Now they are talking about replacing teachers wholesale with AI. We are getting closer to the end game and complete control of the human mind.
This makes me think we’re looking at the other side of the uncanny valley
This technology is equivalent to the atomic bomb for population manipulation. This is why the wealthy are so obsessed. They are getting closer to being able to control everyone by modeling our behavior.
The scariest part is no one is talking about the reality of this technology and what it will be used for. They have completely captured the narrative already.
I hope it's more of a cliff. A trough implies that it will go back the other way.
Can’t close the Pandora’s box. AI is already out there and it’s being used in a variety of places. Some of those things are good, bad, ugly, useless, stupid or even terrifying. Once AI reaches the plateau of productivity, all the useless and stupid applications are gone, but the other ones will stay.
That all depends upon if they keep throwing dollars into the furnace to run the models.
"Useful" stuff will have to do an evaluation once they're paying the true cost for these things as well, because most people are not running their own models...this shit is more centralized then even regular cloud computing.
“I think we are running out of low-hanging fruits to improve on,” says Xu. He added that the early agentic gains came from simple changes, “things like formatting errors, or not understanding tools [...] I think we’re going to slow down until we find the next big thing.”
Another AI winter? Another AI winter? (Possible in the medium or long term)
Although we'll also have to wait and see what John Carmack does, because he's also involved in this.
I hope the winter lasts till I die. Godfuck I want a peaceful life.
I think we may see an agentic AI winter, but there are so many other applications and systems that can benefit from deep learning still.
Yeah, no one knows how to use it at scale in the enterprise without consultants setting it up for you.
I remember when companies hung on to old technology for dear life as long as they possibly could. I'm pretty sure they were still making money then. Everyone hopping on these bandwagons and throwing tons of money at it for FOMO are bonkers, this stuff has barely been tested yet as far as productivity, effect on workers, mental health issues, the list goes on.. but I guess that's all fine.
We have an enormous part of the population retiring right now, some are voluntarily working right now and hanging on.
But these people will sell their stock en masse once they retire to buy something more stable like bonds.
The only way the stock market can keep them is to increase the yield so much that they get FOMO and don't convert to bonds just yet.
This raises the stakes and winds up the stock market but now you have a HUGE portion of the population holding back a literal TSUNAMI of liquidation.
If the yield drops, if the apparent value slips, they will sell, the price will drop faster they will sell even more, this is how the next recession will happen, we just can't say when.
When prices crash,the oligarchs will be there to gobble up everything of actual value.
In short AI valuations are holding back the next recession, and if they don't deliver .. it might be a depression and russification of the economy ?
They're also crashing the stability of bonds